The G20 has called for greater investment in infrastructure projects in order to boost growth. One such project, the Train à Grande Vitesse (the TGV – France's high-speed train) allows for corporate productivity gains through reorganisations and increased site specialisation in their areas of expertise. For companies in operation in 2011, this could have represented a positive impact on profit margins of between 0.6 and 1.9 percentage points depending on the industry.
Inflation in the euro area (EA) is recovering. This recovery is explained by the sharp rise in import prices since the beginning of the year and by the steady improvement in the economic situation. In the absence of major shocks, inflation is expected to be around 1.8% in 2019 according to a Phillips curve augmented with import prices.
The relationship between the rather volatile capital flows and domestic credit has become a major challenge from a financial stability point of view. It is at the origin of the implementation, in some economies, of capital flow management measures. Domestic credit sensitivity to cross-border inflows is amplified by the fixed exchange rate arrangements and the strong presence of foreign banks. The implications for countercyclical policies are significant.
By Eric Monnet and Damien Puy
As the world economic growth is experiencing its first synchronized recovery since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, it is time to investigate again the links between business cycle synchronization and financial openness. Would decreasing international capital movements attenuate co-movements between national cycles? An historical perspective on the matter shows that, contrary to the common wisdom, the periods of lower global financial integration were not associated with lower business cycle synchronization.
Figure 1 – Before 2007, Globalization had not led to higher business cycle synchronization
Sources: International Financial Statistics, see Monnet & Puy (2016). Averages are computed across all 21 countries for each sub sample
By Edouard Vidon
Game theory provides examples and a few valuable lessons for negotiators, whether hawks or doves, such as the risk of “falling off a cliff” in the “game of chicken”. Investment bank strategists and academics have already started toying with such tools to analyse the Brexit “game”. Surely the negotiators’ war rooms have been paying attention.
Brexit negotiations: the clock is ticking
Photo: T. Depenbusch (via wikicommons)