Students, the fith Eco Notepad competition will close on the 17th of July. the Banque de France is inviting students in France to write a post on the theme of "The effects of inflation on households and companies”. The two best posts will be published on this site and will receive a prize of 3,000 and 1,500 euros and a one-year subscription to Pour l'Eco.
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Post n°315

Critical metals for the transition: macro-financial issues

Published on 05/09/2023

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By Stéphane Dees, Simon Dikau, Hugh Miller, Romain Svartzman

Several metals will play a critical role in the transition to a zero-carbon economy. Imbalances between supply and a growing demand for these metals could arise. In order to assess these imbalances, Miller et al (2023) estimate the demand for metals induced by the NGFS climate scenarios and outline the potential implications in terms of macro-financial vulnerabilities.

Chart 1: Change in demand for critical metals (in Mt) induced by the NGFS "Net Zero by 2050" scenario
Chart 1: Change in demand for critical metals (in Mt) induced by the NGFS "Net Zero by 2050" scenario Source: Miller et al. (2023)
Updated on 05/09/2023 08:26
Post n°314

Towards more clarity in central bank communication

Published on 04/13/2023

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By Sylvérie Herbert, Klodiana Istrefi and Giulia Sestieri

Central banks are shifting toward greater clarity in communicating their policy decisions, as reflected in simpler and engaging versions of monetary policy statements. We show that while the policy statements of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of England are complex and cover several topics, their simplified versions focus on the main challenges for the general public (currently inflation).

Chart 1. Most frequent words in the simplified versions of monetary policy communication
Chart 1. Most frequent words in the simplified versions of monetary policy communication
Updated on 04/13/2023 10:20
Post n°313

Job-to-job flows and wage dynamics

Published on 04/06/2023

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By Clémence Berson and Elisa Busson

Job-to-job moves usually enable employees to improve their pay or working conditions. It is therefore an important factor in wage dynamics. Resignations, which often indicate a job change, can be used to forecast wage and inflation trends.

Chart 1: Changes in resignation and job-to-job rates in France
Chart 1: Changes in resignation and job-to-job rates in France Source: Dares, Insee, authors' calculations. Note: Resignations (establishments with more than 10 employees) = quarterly data; job changes = annual data (Berson et al. 2020); shaded periods = negative change in real GDP.
Updated on 04/06/2023 10:41
Post n°312

Strategic autonomy: issues for central banks

Published on 03/28/2023

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By Florian Le Gallo, Pauline Négrin and Pierre-François Weber

Policies aimed at fostering strategic autonomy have emerged in the European Union (EU) as a response to a geopolitical and economic environment that has been disrupted by major crises. Given their consequences for price stability, financial sovereignty and financing of the economy, these policies raise questions for the Eurosystem.

Diagram 1: Euro area strategic autonomy
Diagram 1: Euro area strategic autonomy
Updated on 03/28/2023 08:35
Post n°311

Are SRI-certified funds greener?

Published on 03/23/2023

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By Pierre Bui Quang and David Nefzi

Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) funds take account of social, environmental and governance considerations in their investment policy. Are they really greener than non-certified funds? Indeed, portfolio analysis suggests that on average they are. However, certification does not necessarily guarantee environmental excellence.

Chart 1: Carbon intensity of SRI-certified and non-certified funds (tCO2eq per M€ of revenue of the companies in which the funds invest).
Chart 1: Carbon intensity of SRI-certified and non-certified funds (tCO2eq per M€ of revenue of the companies in which the funds invest). Source: Banque de France, ISS Note: Equity portfolio of French equity funds.
Updated on 03/23/2023 08:50
Post n°310

Crypto-assets: 2022 confirmed already identified risks

Published on 03/16/2023

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By Claire Brousse and Youssef  Mouheb

In 2022, the crypto-asset market underwent a sharp fall in valuation. After previously attracting a number of retail investors who were searching for high yields in 2021, the market revealed its instability. The expansion and high volatility of the crypto-asset market has resulted in greater risks and losses for crypto players and investors alike.

Chart 1: A sharp fall in the crypto-asset market in 2022
Chart 1: A sharp fall in the crypto-asset market in 2022 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 December 2022
Updated on 03/16/2023 08:39
Post n°309

Sub-Saharan Africa: the financial gender gap between men and women

Published on 03/13/2023

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By Marie-Hélène Ferrer, Luc Jacolin, Caroline Perrin

Although it is a factor in financial inclusion and development, the growth of mobile banking in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has nonetheless gone hand in hand with a growing gender gap in financial inclusion. This unexpected consequence of financial digitalisation calls for a rethink of development policies.

Chart 1: Bank coverage (adult population with account, %) and gender gap (hatched)
Chart 1: Bank coverage (adult population with account, %) and gender gap (hatched) Source: Global Findex and authors’ calculations Note: Percentage of the adult population holding an account at a bank or other type of financial institution.
Updated on 03/13/2023 08:38
Post n°308

Gender disparities in climate-related behaviours and consequences

Published on 03/08/2023

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By Oriane Wegner

While at first glance climate change might appear to affect all members of the population equally, studies have found gender disparities in individual and professional behaviours that generate greenhouse gas emissions, and in the consequences of climate change.

Chart 1: Total annual consumption-related greenhouse gas emissions of three types of households in Sweden in 2016
Chart 1: Total annual consumption-related greenhouse gas emissions of three types of households in Sweden in 2016 Source: Carlsson-Kanyama et al., 2021
Updated on 03/08/2023 08:31
Post n°307

Central banks’ announcements and market inflation expectations

Published on 03/07/2023

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By Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, Cristina Jude, Adrian Penalver, Urszula Szczerbowicz

This post investigates how monetary policy announcements in the US and the euro area have affected inflation expectations since 2021. We show that a 100bp surprise increase in 2-year rates translated into a 30-50bp drop in medium-term inflation expectations. Central banks’ effective communication was the main factor influencing inflation expectations around these announcements.

Figure 1: Response of inflation expectations to a 100bp monetary policy surprises in 2021-2023
Figure 1: Response of inflation expectations to a 100bp monetary policy surprises in 2021-2023 Source: Bloomberg and authors calculations
Updated on 03/07/2023 08:33
Post n°306

Global tightening of monetary policies, how are emerging countries reacting?

Published on 02/27/2023

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By Valentin Burban and Pavel Diev

In the context of the global monetary tightening cycle, we show that most emerging countries have reacted in line with their price stability objectives. But three major emerging market economies - China, Russia and Türkiye - are currently in an easing phase for idiosyncratic reasons.

Chart 1: Deviation of inflation from target levels at the start of the normalisation phase (percentage points)
Chart 1: Deviation of inflation from target levels at the start of the normalisation phase (percentage points) Source: Consensus Economics, national sources and Banque de France
Updated on 02/27/2023 08:32
Post n°305

Digital players in the financial sector: between specialisation and diversification

Published on 02/20/2023

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By Laurent Clerc, Timothée Dufour, Pierre Harguindeguy and Stefano Ungaro

The customer base of digital financial players is rapidly expanding. The sector is characterised by a wide variety of business models. Among the players analysed over the 2018-20 period, the "100% digital" ones have become profitable because of their specialisation approach and their ability to develop strategic partnerships, while the traditional players have instead sought to diversify their customer base.

Chart 1 - New customers and number of accounts opened with digital finance players, 2018-20.
Chart 1 - New customers and number of accounts opened with digital finance players, 2018-20. Source: ACPR, based on data from qualitative questionnaires submitted to a sample of 15 digital financial players providing banking services.
Updated on 02/20/2023 08:51
Post n°304

Are bancassurers more resilient? A French perspective

Published on 02/13/2023

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By Cyril Pouvelle

The French bancassurance model stems from the growth of the life insurance market. Based on the results of a model of 800 French banks on a non-consolidated basis over the 1993-2021 period, being part of a financial conglomerate enhances the resilience of groups due to the fact that they are exposed to certain external shocks in an asymmetric manner.

Chart 1: Changes in the Z-score, a measure of default risk, for banking entities belonging to a financial conglomerate and other banking entities
Chart 1: Changes in the Z-score, a measure of default risk, for banking entities belonging to a financial conglomerate and other banking entities Source: ACPR
Updated on 02/13/2023 08:35

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