Post n°234
Published on 10/21/2021

By Chloé Zapha and David Fouet

Using out-of-court proceedings to resolve companies’ financial difficulties can help them to recover by preserving their reputation. However, directors seldom use them, partly because of a lack of information available about these facilities. It would be beneficial for small companies to make use of these "crisis exit" restructuring mechanisms, which are designed for them.

Chart 1: Out-of-court proceedings, which are more effective in helping businesses to recover, account for only 5% of proceedings initiated in 2019
Chart 1: Out-of-court proceedings, which are more effective in helping businesses to recover, account for only 5% of proceedings initiated in 2019 Note: judicial liquidation is “direct” when the company has not made use of other proceedings beforehand. Source: Ministry of Justice - Statistical analysis of the general civil register, 2019
Post n°233
Published on 10/14/2021

By Erwan Gautier, Magali Marx and Paul Vertier

A 1% increase in the price of imported refined diesel ultimately translates into a 0.75% increase in the pre-tax price and a 0.3% increase in the pump price of diesel including taxes in France. The adjustment does not occur immediately but is rapid: after one week, the increase in the pre-tax price is 0.45%, i.e. more than 50% of the final pass-through. Prices respond in the same way to an upward or downward shock.

Chart 1: Response of diesel prices to a 1% shock in the commodity cost
Chart 1: Response of diesel prices to a 1% shock in the commodity cost Sources: Ministry for the Ecological and Solidarity Transition, Reuters. Authors' calculations.
Post n°228
Published on 10/14/2021

Does requiring financial institutions to be more transparent about the climate impact of their portfolios encourage them to reduce their investments in the most polluting industries? We study the effect of a French law passed in 2015, the first to impose such an obligation. We show that investors subject to mandatory reporting have significantly reduced their holdings of securities issued by fossil fuel companies, compared to investors not targeted by the law.

Chart 1: Cumulated outstanding amount of securities issued by fossil fuel companies, held by treated financial institutions vs control group financial institutions
Chart 1: Cumulated outstanding amount of securities issued by fossil fuel companies, held by treated financial institutions vs control group financial institutions Source: Mésonnier and Nguyen (2021)
Post n°232
Published on 10/13/2021

By Yannick Kalantzis and Youssef Ulgazi

The recent rise in French inflation is temporary in nature but could last for a few more quarters. It is linked to a normalisation of prices after the lows seen in 2020, and to the increase in industrial goods and energy prices. After reaching a peak on the back of these temporary effects, inflation should come back to below the 2% mark over the course of 2022.

Chart 1: Banque de France projection for French inflation (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, %)
Chart 1: Banque de France projection for French inflation (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, %) Source: INSEE data up to the second quarter of 2021 and for the data point in the third quarter of 2021. Shaded area shows Banque de France projections. For the third quarter, only the inflation figure for July was available at the time of the projections
Post n°231
Published on 10/07/2021

By Florian Le Gallo and Kevin Schmitt

After a sluggish first half of the year, international travel picked up in the summer of 2021. In France, travel receipts amounted to EUR10.6 billion, down 29% compared to the summer of 2019 but up 25% compared to 2020. This rebound can be attributed to travellers from nearby countries. However, French travel spending abroad is also more dynamic, so that the surplus is still slightly lower than in the summer of 2020.

Chart 1: France’s monthly travel receipts (EUR billions, non-seasonally-adjusted data)
Chart 1: France’s monthly travel receipts (EUR billions, non-seasonally-adjusted data) Source: Banque de France
Post n°230
Published on 10/01/2021

By Daniele Siena and Riccardo Zago 

The occupational composition of the labour market is important for the relationship between prices and unemployment, i.e. the Phillips Curve (PC). The decline of the share of routine jobs can explain 1/4 of the recent flattening of the PC in the European Monetary Union (EMU).

Chart 1: The Slope of the Phillips Curve and Job Polarisation
Chart 1: The Slope of the Phillips Curve and Job Polarisation Note: This chart plots the slope of the price PC (1.a) and the routine employment share (1.b) across the EMU. Grey areas represent recessions, blue areas are the 95% confidence interval.
Post n°229
Published on 09/28/2021

By Nicolas Chatelais

In 2020, the fall in GDP was less pronounced in the United States than in Europe. The restrictions on activity and travel – both imposed and voluntary - linked to the fight against the pandemic, which were greater in France/Italy/Spain, account for more than 40% of the gap with the United States. This factor was amplified by the difference in sectoral specialization (US digital advantage, weight of tourism in Europe). The difference in the level of fiscal support explains less than 20% of the gap.

Chart 1: Factors explaining the gap in GDP variation between the United States and Europe in 2020
Chart 1: Factors explaining the gap in GDP variation between the United States and Europe in 2020 Sources: IMF, national, author’s calculations
Post n°227
Published on 08/18/2021

The pandemic has hit certain economies harder than others as a result of their particular sectoral specialisation. France’s specialisation in aeronautics, for example, explains nearly two-thirds of the decline in its global export market shares in the second half of 2020, and a third of the 8 percentage-point decline over the full year.

Chart 1: Value of goods exports (quarterly national accounts, Q4 2019=100).
Chart 1: Value of goods exports (quarterly national accounts, Q4 2019=100). Source: Quarterly national accounts, data adjusted for seasonal and working-day variations.
Post n°226
Published on 08/11/2021

By Valérie Chauvin and Pierre Sicsic

In 2020, the current account deficit of the balance of payments reached its highest level since 1982. It was financed by larger purchases of government securities by non-residents than in 2019, amounting to EUR 86 billion, which covered both the current account deficit and the increase in net private sector assets.

Chart 1:  financing from the rest of the world by sector (in EUR billions)
Chart 1: financing from the rest of the world by sector (in EUR billions) Source Banque de France
Post n°225
Published on 07/30/2021

By Benjamin Bureau, Anne Duquerroy, Julien Giorgi, Mathias Lé, Suzanne Scott and Frédéric Vinas

Without support measures, the cash flow shocks (on a constant funding basis) experienced by French companies in 2020 would have been generally negative but above all very heterogeneous, including within a single sector of activity. The support measures brought the share of negative (and positive) shocks back to the level of a normal year and reduced their dispersion, although major shocks at both distribution tails were less rare than usual.

Chart 1. Share of companies with a positive or negative cash flow shock in 2020
Chart 1. Share of companies with a positive or negative cash flow shock in 2020 Source: Bureau et al. (2021a).
Post n°224
Published on 07/23/2021

By Franck Lemaire, Loriane Py, Jean-Pierre Villetelle and Frédéric Vinas

An analysis of a sample of nearly 180,000 SMEs exposed to the health crisis shows that the vast majority of companies that took on debt in 2020 kept some of this money in cash. In the context of the gradual phasing out of government support, we also assess the extent to which businesses will be able to meet their debt obligations depending on their level of activity.

Chart 1:  SME cash flow statements for 2019 and 2020 (per EUR 100 turnover)
Chart 1: SME cash flow statements for 2019 and 2020 (per EUR 100 turnover) Source: Banque de France, FIBEN database 2019 and 2020, sample of SMEs exposed to the health crisis in 2020. Note: OWCR, Operating working capital requirement + NOWCR, non-operating working capital requirement.
Post n°223
Published on 07/14/2021

By Antoine Berthou and Sebastian Stumpner

Lockdowns and more generally restrictions introduced by governments during the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the disruption of international trade in goods. We show that bilateral trade declined more when lockdowns were initially introduced in Spring 2020 with a higher degree of stringency. Moreover, the quantitative impact of lockdowns on trade weakened in the second half of 2020. This is especially the case of lockdowns implemented in the exporting country, which have little or no significant impact on trade in the second half of 2020.

Chart 1: The effect of lockdowns on bilateral trade has become weaker over time in 2020.
Chart 1: The effect of lockdowns on bilateral trade has become weaker over time in 2020

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