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Post n°205
Published on 02/23/2021

By Olivier de Bandt, Jean-Charles Bricongne and Lionel Fontagné

The environment that economic policy makers face today is characterised by both a large amount of uncertainty and a high level of globalisation. This blog post highlights a perception of increasing uncertainty by economic agents when external shocks become more frequent, and a faster transmission of these shocks when the economy is more open, or when traded goods are produced within more sophisticated "value chains". Globalisation has thus heightened the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty on the real economy, amplifying the consequences of international uncertainty shocks.

Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Post n°204
Published on 02/17/2021

By Raphaël Cancé, Jean-François Ouvrard and Camille Thubin

The health crisis has caused an unprecedented economic shock. In this post, we describe its different channels using the FR-BDF forecasting model. In 2020, shocks to private domestic demand and to trade performance dominate. In 2021 and 2022, public support is expected to speed up economic recovery, but supply shocks should slow down the rebound.

Chart 1: Deviation of projected activity in December 2020 from the pre-crisis path
Chart 1: Deviation of projected activity in December 2020 from the pre-crisis path Source: Banque de France (FR-BDF model, December 2020 macroeconomic projections)
Post n°203
Published on 02/10/2021

How would the impact of a European carbon tax on the French economy differ from that in the rest of the EU? The medium-run impact on value added would be 20% lower in France than in the rest of the EU. This divergence would stem more from differences in the sectoral structure of the economy (the weight of those sectors most affected, inter-sectoral flows) than from differences in carbon intensity between homologous sectors.

Chart 1: Breakdown by sector of the impact on real value added in France and in the rest of the EU
Chart 1: Breakdown by sector of the impact on real value added in France and in the rest of the EU Source: Authors' calculations.
Post n°202
Published on 02/03/2021

By Jérémi Montornès and Marie-Baïanne Khder

The authors belonged to the Economic Studies and National Accounts Directorate at Insee when they wrote the article from which this blog post is derived. The authors would like to thank D. Blanchet for his helpful comments when writing the article. They remain solely responsible for any errors and omissions.

Irish GDP growth over the recent period has been strongly influenced by transfers from US multinationals. These transactions have increased since 2015. Changes in Irish GDP and its components now reflect multinationals’ choice of location in addition to cyclical fluctuations.

Chart 1: Quarterly changes in GDP and GNI in volume  (in %, adjusted for seasonal and working day variations)
Chart 1: Quarterly changes in GDP and GNI in volume (in %, adjusted for seasonal and working day variations) Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), national accounts
Post n°201
Published on 01/27/2021

By Dominique Durant, Kevin Parra Ramirez, Geneviève Toubol

The descriptive data associated with large enterprise identifiers (LEIs) provide up-to-date information on groups’ ownership structure, as well as on the legal form and location of their operations, including those in off-shore financial centres (OFCs). Extending the obligation to have an LEI would thus help to make global financial transactions more transparent.

Chart 1: Distribution of locations of foreign subsidiaries, by parent company nationality
Chart 1: Distribution of locations of foreign subsidiaries, by parent company nationality
Post n°200
Published on 01/22/2021

By Ivan Odonnat

Interest rate benchmarks, which are used to price money-market instruments as well as numerous financial contracts (bank overdrafts, real estate loans, bond debt, etc.), are only relevant if they are reliable and representative of the actual financing conditions experienced by economic agents. At the global level, they underpin some USD 350 trillion worth of financial instruments and contracts.

Chart 1: Evolution of interest rate benchmarks in the euro area
Chart 1: Evolution of interest rate benchmarks in the euro area Sources: EMMI and ECB.
Post n°199
Published on 01/12/2021

By Antonin Bergeaud and Simon Ray

The health restrictions put in place in France and the rest of Europe have obliged firms and workers to resort to teleworking on a massive scale. By breaking down some of the existing barriers to home-working, this shock will probably mark a turning point in the use of teleworking. This in turn has major implications for workers, businesses and the economy.

Chart 1:  Cross-department heterogeneity in potential for teleworking
Chart 1: Cross-department heterogeneity in potential for teleworking Source: DADS, Dingel and Neiman (2020) and DARES (2019)
Published on 01/07/2021

Eco Notepad celebrated its fourth birthday in December 2020: we’ve published nearly 200 posts in English and French and our readership keeps on growing! 2020 was a reminder of just how important it is to have rapidly available, relevant information in order to make sense of economic events as they happen.

Post n°198
Published on 01/05/2021

Teleworking has increased sharply with the Covid-19 crisis and is likely to remain widespread in the future. This could have favourable effects on firms’ productivity, notably through the accelerated diffusion of technologies. However, the academic literature stresses that adequate preparation will be needed in order to reap the full benefits of this favourable impact.

Chart 1: Inverted-U relationship between teleworking intensity (as a proportion of working time) and productivity for two different activities Inspired by the OECD (2020)
Post n°196
Published on 12/24/2020

By Valère Fourel, Julien Idier, Valerio Scalone and Aurore Schilte

Unlike the fictitious scenarios used in standard prudential stress test exercises (see post "Bank stress tests: tools for prudential analysis – Episode 1"), the Covid-19 crisis represents an unprecedented adverse scenario. This is an opportunity to draw the first lessons from it: (i) on the resilience of the banking system, as observed for the time being, and (ii) on the improvement of stress-test tools in the light of this experience.

Chart 1: Loss of GDP in the stress tests and during recent crises (pp)
Chart 1: Loss of GDP in the stress tests and during recent crises (pp)
Post n°195
Published on 12/22/2020

By Valère Fourel, Julien Idier, Valerio Scalone and Aurore Schilte

In order to protect banks from macroeconomic and financial shocks, prudential authorities use a range of risk analysis tools, among them stress tests. What are they? What purpose do they serve? This blog post answers these questions and is accompanied by a second post on the “real-life” stress placed on banks by the Covid-19 crisis.

Chart 1: Steps in a bottom-up bank stress-test exercise.
Chart 1: Steps in a bottom-up bank stress-test exercise.
Post n°194
Published on 12/18/2020

Digital technologies are often seen as a potential vector for the third industrial revolution. This blog exploits a unique survey by the Banque de France to measure firms’ digitalisation and determine its potential impact on productivity. The use of technologies, which has been stimulated by the Covid-19 crisis, could facilitate and reinforce the economic rebound.

Chart 1: Use of ICTs and digital technologies in manufacturing in 2018
Chart 1: Use of ICTs and digital technologies in manufacturing in 2018 Sources: Survey of factor utilisation degrees and FIBEN (Banque de France). Scope: Firms for which at least one establishment belongs to the manufacturing sector and with at least 20 employees.

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