Post n°248
Published on 01/05/2022

By Mathilde Salin, Romain Svartzman, Etienne Espagne, Julien Gauthey, Paul Hadji-Lazaro, Thomas Allen, Joshua Berger, Julien Calas, Antoine Godin and Antoine Vallier

Like climate change, biodiversity loss could be a source of financial risk. As a first analysis, we study the dependencies of the securities portfolio held by French financial institutions on ecosystem services, and the impacts on biodiversity of the activities financed.

Chart 1: Dependencies of the securities portfolio held by French financial institutions on ecosystem services
Chart 1: Dependencies of the securities portfolio held by French financial institutions on ecosystem services Source: Svartzman et al. (2021). Note: 42% of the value of the securities portfolio held by French financial institutions was issued by companies that are highly or very highly dependent on at least one ecosystem service.
Post n°247
Published on 12/20/2021

By Olivier de Bandt, Juan Carluccio, David Lodge, Javier Perez

Since the previous ECB strategy review in 2003, interdependencies across countries have increased, making economic and financial conditions in the euro area more prone to foreign influence. However, the analyses behind the new ECB’s Strategy Review conclude globalisation does not impede the ECB from achieving price stability but calls for the adaptation of instruments and analytical toolkits.

Figure 1: Trade openness 1995-2020, euro area and world
Figure 1: Trade openness 1995-2020, euro area and world Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators and European Central Bank data. Trade openness is defined as the sum of imports and exports divided by GDP.
Post n°246
Published on 12/17/2021

After the 2008 financial crisis, then the 2020 health crisis, will the next global economic crisis be a cyber crisis? Cyber risk is a real threat to the economy and public authorities are mobilised to deal with it. This post presents an indicator used to monitor this risk on a daily basis, based on exchanges on the social network Twitter.

Chart 1 – Evolution of cyber risk over the last decade
Chart 1 – Evolution of cyber risk over the last decade Source: Twitter and authors’ calculations.
Post n°245
Published on 12/10/2021

By Jean Barthélemy, Paul Gardin and Benoît Nguyen

The strong growth of stablecoins - the category of crypto-assets whose market value is supposed to remain stable by being pegged to a reference currency such as the dollar - is increasingly attracting the attention of regulators because of potential risks to financial stability. This post illustrates one of the mechanisms by which crypto-assets could impact financial stability: the growing use of stablecoins could prove destabilising to the short-term debt market in the United States.

Chart 1: Capitalisation of the main stablecoins
Chart 1: Capitalisation of the main stablecoins Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Messari, Bloomberg
Post n°244
Published on 12/09/2021

By Katrin Assenmacher, Gabriel Glöckler, Sarah Holton, Klodiana Istrefi, Adrian Penalver

To ensure public understanding and trust, the ECB has to explain better what it does to all the people it serves. With these goals in mind, the Governing Council modernised its communication in July 2021, to have a stronger influence on interest rates and inflation expectations. The ECB will also listen more to citizens’ economic concerns.

Chart 1: High support for the euro; the recovery of trust in ECB is slow
Chart 1: High support for the euro; the recovery of trust in ECB is slow Source: Eurobarometer.
Post n°243
Published on 12/06/2021

By Jérémie Dubois

2nd prize of 2021 Eco Notepad competition for students
The economic shock triggered by the health crisis has significantly reduced the hiring of young people. Thanks to business support measures, the employment rate of the under-26s has been raised, but it remains low by international standards. We propose a second, complementary approach, aimed at limiting the labour supply of young people by encouraging them to further their education.

Chart 1: Pre-employment declarations for the under-26s, permanent and fixed-term contracts of over 3 months.
Chart 1: Pre-employment declarations for the under-26s, permanent and fixed-term contracts of over 3 months. Source: Chart from Dares, based on Acoss data on pre-employment declarations; Note: gross data adjusted for latecomers, ended at 30/04/2021
Post n°242
Published on 12/06/2021

By Jean-Baptiste Lézat-Eiffel

1st prize of 2021 Eco Notepad competition for students
While young people are the age group least affected by the virus, they are among the worst affected by the economic consequences of the crisis. Financial support schemes for young people need to be simplified to make them more accessible. They also need to be directed more towards measures that foster autonomy and professional integration.

Chart 1: Employment/educational status of young people, by age (annual average for the period 2015-19)
Chart 1: Employment/educational status of young people, by age (annual average for the period 2015-19) Source: INSEE Labour Force Surveys, 2015 to 2019. Scope: France excluding Mayotte, individuals living in ordinary accommodation.
Published on 12/06/2021

Distance learning, entering the job market, future prospects, precariousness, isolation: the health crisis has changed the lives of young people. Eco Notepad, in partnership with the magazine "Pour l'éco", for its 2021 competition, invited students to share their analysis on the prospects of young people in the world of tomorrow.

Post n°241
Published on 11/30/2021

Yolaine Fischer and Giulia Sestieri

People’s views diverge as to which economic priorities the ECB should focus on. After recalling the economic rationale of the ECB mandate, as well as the legal framework, this posts gives some insights into the reasons why its new strategy takes account of other considerations, such as climate change, in the way in which the ECB fulfils its mandate.

Chart 1. What is the primary objective of the ECB monetary policy?
Chart 1. What is the primary objective of the ECB monetary policy? Source: Survey conducted by Kantar on behalf of the Banque de France in October 2020 by phone. Note: Sample: 1,005 individuals, 18 years and over.
Post n°240
Published on 11/24/2021

In July 2021, the ECB announced that its price stability objective is best served by a 2% inflation target over the medium term. This clear and symmetric inflation target reinforces the buffer against deflation risks and supports the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Chart 1: Inflation in the euro area, 1999 until June 2021
Chart 1: Inflation in the euro area, 1999 until June 2021 Source: ECB.
Post n°239
Published on 11/24/2021

In July 2021, the ECB announced a new monetary policy strategy. Behind the scenes, staff of the Eurosystem produced a comprehensive and detailed analysis to support the Governing Council. This blog summarises the main outcomes and will provide links to future blogs explaining the background material.

Source: European Central Bank
Post n°238
Published on 11/12/2021

By J.-C. Bricongne, J. Carluccio, L. Fontagné, G. Gaulier and S. Stumpner

The Covid-19 crisis led to a collapse of French exports in April and May 2020. Using customs data, we investigate the role of the performance of individual exporters. Although the number of exporters contracted by roughly a quarter, excluding aeronautics, it was the reduction in exports of the hundred or so largest exporters (representing 36% of French exports before Covid) that accounted for approximately half of the decline observed at the aggregate level.

Chart 1: Largest exporters contributed more than their pre-crisis share (April-May 2020 relative to April-May 2019)
Chart 1: Largest exporters contributed more than their pre-crisis share (April-May 2020 relative to April-May 2019) Source:  Authors' calculations based on Customs data.

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