December 2022

Post n°299

New indicators of perceived inflation in France based on media data

Published on 12/27/2022

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By Jean-Charles Bricongne, Olivier de Bandt, Annabelle de Gaye, Julien Denes, Paul Hubert, Pierre-Antoine Robert

The recent rise in inflation could affect households' and businesses' perception of inflation. This post describes new indicators of perceived inflation in France constructed from alternative data: newspaper articles and messages from the social network Twitter. The advantage of such data is that they are available at high frequency and in real time.

Chart 1. Indicators of perceived inflation based on media data (standardised and rescaled) Sources: Factiva, Twitter, European Commission, authors' calculations.
Updated on 12/27/2022 09:49
Post n°298

Dynamics and Implications of the Recent Rise in Wheat Prices

Published on 12/23/2022

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By Raj Rajesh, Paul Vertier, Thibault Lemaire, Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, and Aude Le Metayer

The increase in global wheat prices in the last two years, especially after the start of the Ukraine war, reflects a strong market integration and a high dependence on energy and fertiliser prices. As several developing countries depend on a small number of wheat exporters, curbing food insecurity will require coordinated action and crop diversification.

Chart 1: International export prices (free on board) of wheat in different markets
Chart 1: International export prices (free on board) of wheat in different markets Source: FAO
Updated on 12/23/2022 14:00
Post n°297

The euro area welcomes its 20th member, Croatia, on 1 January 2023

Published on 12/19/2022

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By Violaine Faubert and Florian Le Gallo

Ten years after joining the European Union, Croatia will adopt the euro on 1 January 2023, thus becoming the 20th member of the euro area after Lithuania. The adoption of the euro, which is achieved by complying with the convergence criteria, will reduce the exchange rate risk. Lower transaction and financing costs will strengthen trade and financial integration, thereby promoting real convergence.

Chart 1: Croatia's exports and imports with its main trading partners in 2021
Chart 1: Croatia's exports and imports with its main trading partners in 2021 Source: Eurostat, balance of payments. Note: trade flows broken down by partner country and product. Croatian exports of goods to Germany account for 11% of its total exports of goods.
Updated on 12/19/2022 09:13
Post n°296

Remote working: a new dynamic in the labour market?

Published on 12/12/2022

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By Pierre-Emmanuel Caplet - 2nd prize in the 2022 Eco Notepad competition - Masters student at Paris-Saclay Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS)

Despite the pandemic’s abatement, teleworking seems to be holding steady. This new working arrangement could have several consequences for the labour market: reduced business costs; greater worker flexibility; more rapid digitalisation; and new geographical and sectoral dynamics.

Chart 1: Teleworking in 2021
Chart 1: Teleworking in 2021 Source: INSEE, Labour Force Survey, 2021. Note: Scope covers France excluding Mayotte, people living in ordinary housing, employees working at least one hour of paid work a week.
Updated on 12/12/2022 18:36
Post n°295

Teleworking : an opportunity to reduce frictional unemployment

Published on 12/12/2022

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By Lili Vessereau
1st prize in the 2022 Eco Notepad competition
Second year student for the Master's degree in Corporate & Public Management at Sciences-Po Paris

By shortening the number of days spent on-site at their workplace, teleworking can, under certain conditions, broaden job seekers’ geographical search perimeter. By reducing the rigidities linked to geographical mobility, teleworking could thus contribute to lowering frictional unemployment.

Chart 1: Beveridge curve
Chart 1: Beveridge curve Source: DARES according to INSEE, business survey and employment survey
Updated on 12/12/2022 18:30
Post n°294

Natural disasters: exposure and underinsurance

Published on 12/08/2022

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By Céline Grislain-Letrémy

Overseas households are more exposed to natural disasters than in mainland France, with a 20% increase in the sinistrality expected by 2050. However, far fewer of them are insured. Insurance supply is developed and regulated. The low subscription is mainly due to uninsurable housing and the anticipation of assistance.

Figure 1 : Effects of Hurricane Maria, Guadeloupe, 2017
Figure 1 : Effects of Hurricane Maria, Guadeloupe, 2017 Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dégats_Ouragan_Maria_(Aprés_son_Passage).jpg
Updated on 12/08/2022 17:25
Post n°293

How much do China’s regional lockdowns affect international trade?

Published on 12/02/2022

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By Sebastian Stumpner

As part of its zero-Covid policy, China uses regional lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. This blog estimates the effect of these regional lockdowns on Chinese trade. While most lockdowns have no noticeable effect, lockdowns of very high stringency are continuing to depress trade. The particularly stringent Shanghai lockdown in April 2022 reduced aggregate Chinese trade by 3-4%.

Chart 1: Exports of Shanghai Province collapsed during the Shanghai Lockdown
Chart 1: Exports of Shanghai Province collapsed during the Shanghai Lockdown
Updated on 12/02/2022 08:44