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Post n°6

US elections, interest rates and Europe’s monetary independence

Published on 02/07/2017

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by Benoit Mojon

The ECB unconventional monetary policy has largely succeeded in decoupling nominal interest rates in the euro area from those in the United States since 2014, as warranted by their respective macroeconomic conditions. This has been especially true since the rise in US interest rates after the election of Donald Trump, particularly for rates up to 5 years.

Figure 1: 5 year interest rates (Euro area AAA, US, UK and French treasuries, in %) Sources: Bloomberg and ECB
Updated on 02/07/2020 15:17
Post n°3

The Normalization of Global Trade and China

Published on 01/10/2017

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Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress and Soledad Zignago

Over the past five years, global trade and global production have grown at similar rates, whereas before 2008, global trade grew at twice the rate. This slowdown in global trade is largely due to China’s rebalancing towards its domestic demand and its services sector. If we exclude the decline in trade related to increasing protectionism, near-parallel growth for global trade and production is the new “normal.”

Updated on 02/07/2020 14:57

Standard of living & risk of secular stagnation?

Published on 12/13/2016

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By Rémy Lecat with Antonin Bergeaud and Gilbert Cette

Standard of living has slowed continuously over the past decades in most developed economies, mainly due to a productivity slowdown. Have we entered a period of secular stagnation? In fact, many countries still have a significant catch-up potential, even in Europe, but to achieve this catch-up, the implementation of structural reforms is required.

Updated on 01/09/2019 10:56

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