Students, the fith Eco Notepad competition will close on the 17th of July. the Banque de France is inviting students in France to write a post on the theme of "The effects of inflation on households and companies”. The two best posts will be published on this site and will receive a prize of 3,000 and 1,500 euros and a one-year subscription to Pour l'Eco.
Post n°72
Published on 06/19/2018

By Christoph Grosse Steffen (with Marcel Fratzscher and Malte Rieth)

Countries that adopt a strict inflation target experience stronger growth and lower inflation after large natural disaster shocks. Inflation targeting can hence serve as an important shock absorber thanks mainly to a different policy mix. The results indicate that relaxing the inflation targeting regime might generate potential costs, since the stabilisation of future recessions might become more difficult.

Benefits of inflation targeting (=dark green) in the presence of large disasters
Figure 1. Benefits of inflation targeting (=dark green) in the presence of large disasters Note. Effects of a natural disaster that leads to reported insurance claims of 1% of GDP at quarter t=0. Inflation targeting countries=dark grey, non –inflation targeting countries= light green. Source: Fratzscher, Grosse Steffen and Rieth (2017)
Post n°71
Published on 06/15/2018

By Emmanuelle Politronacci, Elodie Ninlias, Enda Palazzeschi, Ghjuvanni Torre

Within a monetary area, the quantity of banknotes circulating in a given Member State is unknown as banknotes move back and forth across borders and cannot be tracked. There are various estimates but these have the drawback of varying by up to a factor of three. But the issuance of the new series of euro banknotes, combined with surveys, enable these figures to be more specific. Only 10% of the banknotes issued in France are apparently used for transaction purposes in the country.

Widely differing estimates of the value of banknotes in circulation, all denomination included
Chart 1: Widely differing estimates of the value of banknotes in circulation, all denominations included (2015) Source: BdF, based on Eurosystem’s Currency Information System data
Post n°70
Published on 06/05/2018

By Benjamin Bureau and Thibault Libert

In 2016-2017, corporate bankruptcies saw their sharpest drop since 2000. Public discussions often view the impact of corporate bankruptcies purely in terms of their negative short-term consequences, in particular on employment and creditors. However, we show that there may also be more positive medium to long-term effects stemming from resources being reallocated to more productive firms.

A confirmed decline in the number of corporate bankruptcies in France in 2017
Chart 1: A confirmed decline in the number of corporate bankruptcies in France in 2017 Note: Number of bankruptcies in the year, except for 2018, where the aggregate over the past 12 months at end-February 2018 is used. Source: Banque de France – FIBEN database.
Post n°69
Published on 05/31/2018

Reducing current account imbalances is often equated with curbing excessive exports or imports. However, legacies of the past can develop their own dynamics due to accruing income flows. Indeed, in some countries that have accumulated large foreign liabilities, current account adjustment has been impeded by large negative income flows despite substantial improvements in the trade balance.

Figure 1 Current account dynamics Source: IMF BoPS
Post n°68
Published on 05/23/2018

By Pierre-Henri Bono, Quentin David, Rodolphe Desbordes, and Loriane Py

Attracting international capital flows and understanding their determinants are major challenges for public policy. The analysis of 140,000 foreign direct investment (FDI) projects carried out between 2003 and 2014 in 3,500 cities worldwide suggests that investing in subway transport infrastructures may be a means to attract more FDI. In this respect, the Grand Paris Express could therefore contribute to bolstering the international attractiveness of the French capital.

Chart 1: The number of FDI projects received and size of subways: a positive relationship Source: Bono, David, Desbordes, and Py (2017)
Post n°67
Published on 05/16/2018

By Klodiana Istrefi

Monetary policy nowadays is usually decided by a committee. A narrative approach of the history of the U.S Federal Open Market Committee suggests that the Fed Chair’s economic beliefs and the Committee’s center of gravity of policy preferences matter for decision making.

Figure 1. Hawks and Doves at the FOMC (1960-2015) Notes: The Hawk – Dove Balance is the share of Hawks minus the share of Doves in a given meeting of the FOMC (excluding the chair). The shade of the chart indicates the type of the Fed chair, red for Hawk and blue for Dove. Source: Istrefi (2018)
Post n°66
Published on 05/14/2018

Central banks have adopted new unprecedented strategies to fight recent financial crises. In the euro area in 2012, one such tool allowed banks to use a wider set of corporate loans as guarantees when they borrow from the Eurosystem. Two recent studies show that this policy has been critical in fostering banks’ lending to firms during the crisis.

Chart 1: Comparative trends in credit for newly eligible firms Source: Cahn, Duquerroy and Mullins (2017).
Post n°65
Published on 05/09/2018

By Gilbert Cette and Jean-François Ouvrard

Changes in the value added sharing are the focus of considerable debate. In France, the assessment depends largely on the scope of analysis chosen and the degree to which it is aggregated, and it differs depending on the sector: since the crisis, the labour share has increased in market services but has declined in industry.

Chart 1: Labour share in value added (% of the cost of labour in gross value added at factor costs) Source: Insee, authors’ calculations
Post n°64
Published on 05/07/2018

By Pierre Sicsic

In France, the gross investment rate of non-financial corporations is trending upwards, and was half a percentage point higher in 2016 than its previous peak of 2007-2008. However, after deducting capital depreciation, the net investment rate, which corresponds to the increase in productive capital, was one percentage point lower than its 2008 peak and equivalent to its mid-2000s level. The acceleration in depreciation stems from the increase in both capital per unit produced and in the average depreciation rate, which is itself linked to the greater share of intangible assets in investment.

Chart 1: Real gross and net investment rate in France (NFCs-IEs approximation) Sources: National Accounts tables 6.302 and 6.462. The nominal investment rate of NFCs was 23.3% in 2008 and 2016, table 7.101.
Post n°63
Published on 05/04/2018

Short-time work schemes have been implemented in many OECD countries with a view to protecting jobs in companies experiencing temporary difficulties. While such schemes made it possible to save jobs during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, they may also have adverse effects on the economy. However, these effects would be minimised by sensible reforms.

Chart 1. Short-time work and growth Source: OECD.
Post n°62
Published on 04/19/2018

By Bruno Cabrillac, Ludovic Gauvin, Jean-Baptiste Gossé and Florian Lalanne

In countries with very high public debt, a major shock could prevent the implementation of countercyclical fiscal policies and increase default risk. GDP-indexed bonds would help to mitigate these risks and avoid a costly and disruptive restructuring. A counterfactual analysis of the Greek case illustrates this idea.

Chart 1. Greek public debt: observed data and scenario without restructuring with GDP-indexed bonds (% of GDP). Source: IMF and authors’ calculations. * In 2012, Greek public debt was restructured through private sector involvement requiring a EUR 107 billion haircut.
Post n°61
Published on 04/17/2018

The share of imports from low-wage countries in French households’ consumption increased threefold from 1994 to 2014. These less expensive imports lowered inflation in France by 0.17 pp per year on average. This direct effect of imports since 1994 represented a gain of about EUR 1,000 in terms of average household consumption in 2014. However, the indirect effects of opening up to international trade on households’ purchasing power, via wages and employment, were not taken into account.

Chart 1: Share of imports in households’ consumption (in %) Source: Carluccio et al. (2018) based on Customs and INSEE data Note: Only imports of final goods that are included in household consumption are taken into account.