Long term growth

Post n°215
Published on 05/07/2021

By Florian Bonnet, Hippolyte d’Albis and Aurélie Sotura

Over the past century, income disparities per adult between départements have been steadily decreasing. The low-income diagonal, which used to be very marked from the north-west to the south-east, has given way to a "low population density diagonal" which now runs from the north-east to the south-west.

Chart 1. Gini coefficient of income per adult between the 90 départments, 1922-2015
Chart 1. Gini coefficient of income per adult between the 90 départments, 1922-2015 Sources: tax records and authors' calculations
Post n°203
Published on 02/10/2021

How would the impact of a European carbon tax on the French economy differ from that in the rest of the EU? The medium-run impact on value added would be 20% lower in France than in the rest of the EU. This divergence would stem more from differences in the sectoral structure of the economy (the weight of those sectors most affected, inter-sectoral flows) than from differences in carbon intensity between homologous sectors.

Chart 1: Breakdown by sector of the impact on real value added in France and in the rest of the EU
Chart 1: Breakdown by sector of the impact on real value added in France and in the rest of the EU Source: Authors' calculations.
Post n°202
Published on 02/03/2021

By Jérémi Montornès and Marie-Baïanne Khder

The authors belonged to the Economic Studies and National Accounts Directorate at Insee when they wrote the article from which this blog post is derived. The authors would like to thank D. Blanchet for his helpful comments when writing the article. They remain solely responsible for any errors and omissions.

Irish GDP growth over the recent period has been strongly influenced by transfers from US multinationals. These transactions have increased since 2015. Changes in Irish GDP and its components now reflect multinationals’ choice of location in addition to cyclical fluctuations.

Chart 1: Quarterly changes in GDP and GNI in volume  (in %, adjusted for seasonal and working day variations)
Chart 1: Quarterly changes in GDP and GNI in volume (in %, adjusted for seasonal and working day variations) Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), national accounts
Post n°199
Published on 01/12/2021

By Antonin Bergeaud and Simon Ray

The health restrictions put in place in France and the rest of Europe have obliged firms and workers to resort to teleworking on a massive scale. By breaking down some of the existing barriers to home-working, this shock will probably mark a turning point in the use of teleworking. This in turn has major implications for workers, businesses and the economy.

Chart 1:  Cross-department heterogeneity in potential for teleworking
Chart 1: Cross-department heterogeneity in potential for teleworking Source: DADS, Dingel and Neiman (2020) and DARES (2019)
Post n°198
Published on 01/05/2021

Teleworking has increased sharply with the Covid-19 crisis and is likely to remain widespread in the future. This could have favourable effects on firms’ productivity, notably through the accelerated diffusion of technologies. However, the academic literature stresses that adequate preparation will be needed in order to reap the full benefits of this favourable impact.

Chart 1: Inverted-U relationship between teleworking intensity (as a proportion of working time) and productivity for two different activities Inspired by the OECD (2020)
Post n°194
Published on 12/18/2020

Digital technologies are often seen as a potential vector for the third industrial revolution. This blog exploits a unique survey by the Banque de France to measure firms’ digitalisation and determine its potential impact on productivity. The use of technologies, which has been stimulated by the Covid-19 crisis, could facilitate and reinforce the economic rebound.

Chart 1: Use of ICTs and digital technologies in manufacturing in 2018
Chart 1: Use of ICTs and digital technologies in manufacturing in 2018 Sources: Survey of factor utilisation degrees and FIBEN (Banque de France). Scope: Firms for which at least one establishment belongs to the manufacturing sector and with at least 20 employees.
Post n°190
Published on 12/03/2020

1st prize-winning blog in the 2020 Eco Notepad Challenge - by Mathilde Salin et Louis Daumas

Less than a generation lies ahead of us to carry out the bulk of the changes needed to attenuate climate change. Such a rapid transition will imply the loss of a significant share of the physical, human and financial capital accumulated in carbon-intensive sectors. We need to acknowledge this loss and look at ways of making it tolerable.

An example: Propagation of stranded assets in the extractive sector
An example: Propagation of stranded assets in the extractive sector Sources: authors and Cahen-Fourot et al. 2019. Note: Stranded assets (forced capital under-employment) in the fossil extractive sector will directly or indirectly lead to asset stranding in sectors downstream.
Post n°179
Published on 09/03/2020

While the Covid-19 shock to the world economy is, in many respects, unprecedented, the recovery that is expected could nevertheless be similar to past ones. Reconstruction and sectoral reallocation of activity and employment are processes that take time, and debt is likely to weigh on aggregate demand. The speed of the recovery will therefore depend less on the nature of the shock than on the measures taken to limit its impact.

Chart 1 Fall in Unemployment in France, Germany, Italy and the United States during recent recoveries.
Chart 1 Fall in Unemployment in France, Germany, Italy and the United States during recent recoveries. Source: OCDE.
Post n°169
Published on 07/03/2020

Climate policy has so far had limited results despite national commitments under the Paris agreement. Various scenarios establishing a cost-benefit balance of this policy bring to light the main obstacles it is facing. Its net gains are highly significant but remote in time and very unevenly distributed between countries.

Chart 1: Impact on world GDP of global warming and climate policies (as a % of GDP)
Chart 1: Impact on world GDP of global warming and climate policies (as a % of GDP) Source : Alestra, Cette, Chouard and Lecat (2020)
Post n°165
Published on 06/10/2020

Sharp increases in government debt have occurred in post-war periods. While inflation, albeit at times moderate, was the norm in the 20th century, this had not occurred in previous centuries, even though wars had led to similar increases in public debt. One of the reasons for this is that this debt was set aside in a sinking fund for repayment at a later date.

Chart 1: Inflation and government debt in the United Kingdom (1700-1950)
Chart 1: Inflation and government debt in the United Kingdom (1700-1950) Source: Bank of England

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