Labour, goods and service markets

Post n°132

The French trade balance over the past 40 years: what are the drivers?

Published on 09/13/2019

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By Yannick Kalantzis and Camille Thubin

The trade balance as a share of GDP reflects decisions regarding consumption, and therefore saving, and investment. Over the past 40 years, its dynamics in France have been dominated by the cycle of construction: the balance deteriorates in boom phases. The rise in household saving, which contributed to the surplus of the 1990s, was offset after the crisis by a higher share of government consumption in GDP.

Chart 1: Contributions to the Trade Balance,% of GDP in deviation from 1981
Chart 1: Contributions to the Trade Balance,% of GDP in deviation from 1981 Source: INSEE.
Updated on 02/13/2020 11:16
Post n°110

The impact of structural reform on rent creation, rent sharing and productivity

Published on 03/28/2019

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By Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez and Jacques Mairesse

The positive effect on productivity of reducing product market regulation and employment protection legislation has been extensively documented and analysed, leading to many structural reforms in OECD countries. On the basis of new measures of rent creation and rent sharing, we show that further product market deregulation could substantially increase productivity, notably in France and Italy.

Chart 1: Expected total factor productivity gains from product market deregulation
Chart 1: Expected total factor productivity gains from product market deregulation Sources: Authors’ calculations assuming a switch to the most pro-competitive regulations
Updated on 02/14/2020 10:32
Post n°89

Japan: when full employment does not equate to wage growth

Published on 10/09/2018

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By Baptiste Meunier

Despite full employment, Japan is struggling with wage stagnation. Although this "enigma" can in part be explained by cyclical factors - subdued productivity and inflation expectations - it is also being exacerbated by structural factors linked to the country’s social model, notably the duality of its labour market. As a result, the prospects for a rise in wages and hence inflation remain limited.

Croissance des salaires et chômage au Japon
Chart1 – Wage growth and unemployment in Japan Source: OECD
Updated on 02/20/2020 11:04
Post n°76

Obstacles to trade: tariffs are not everything

Published on 07/17/2018

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By Julia Schmidt (with Walter Steingress)

Current trade disputes focus on import tariffs. However non-tariff barriers still constitute a large share of barriers to trade. Cross-country harmonisation of product standards reduces these barriers. The trade-enhancing effects of such harmonisation efforts are equivalent to a reduction in import tariffs of 1.8 percentage points, compared to an average applied tariff rate of 2.0% for the European Union.

Chart 1: Trade Restrictiveness Index
Chart 1: Trade Restrictiveness Index Source: Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index by Kee et al. (2009). The data used were computed for the year 2009.
Updated on 02/14/2020 17:59
Post n°74

Is the French labour market under pressure?

Published on 06/28/2018

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By Françoise Drumetz and Rémy Lecat

Despite persistent high unemployment, recruitment difficulties have already started to arise in France. The current unemployment rate is approaching its structural level, but wages have been relatively sluggish. These pressures partly reflect temporary effects that are common during periods of intense job creation. In the medium term, more effective vocational training would help to lower the level of unemployment at which these pressures begin to emerge.

Chart 1: Downward unemployment rigidity in France? Minimum, maximum and average unemployment rates for the 1985-2017 period
Chart 1: Downward unemployment rigidity in France? Minimum, maximum and average unemployment rates for the 1985-2017 period Source: Eurostat.
Updated on 02/14/2020 17:43
Post n°63

Is short-time work an effective job protection policy?

Published on 05/04/2018

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By Sandra Nevoux (with Pierre Cahuc and Francis Kramarz)

Short-time work schemes have been implemented in many OECD countries with a view to protecting jobs in companies experiencing temporary difficulties. While such schemes made it possible to save jobs during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, they may also have adverse effects on the economy. However, these effects would be minimised by sensible reforms.

Chart 1. Short-time work and growth Source: OECD.
Updated on 02/14/2020 15:00
Post n°60

Increase in the employment of seniors in the euro area

Published on 04/13/2018

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By Violaine Faubert and Antoine Lalliard

Since 2008, the over-50s are the only age group in the euro area to have seen a steady rise in employment, as a result of population ageing and the increase in the effective pension age. In contrast, the number of those under 50 in work has fallen markedly over the same period, despite a recent stabilisation in the trend. The over-60s are the only group not to have seen an improvement in gross hourly wages between 2010 and 2014.

Chart 1: Number of people in work in the euro area by age group and for the entire population aged 15-74. Difference relative to the first quarter of 2008 (thousands). Source: Eurostat
Updated on 02/21/2020 15:01
Post n°55

The labour supply of baby boomers and low-flation

Published on 03/23/2018

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By Benoit Mojon and Xavier Ragot

The weakness of wage inflation may result in part from the increasing participation of older workers in the labour market. Over the last two decades, the participation rate of workers aged 55 to 64 has increased from 33% to 55% on average across OECD countries. We observe that, since 2013, the countries where this increase in labour supply has been the largest have also experienced slower wage inflation.

Figure 1: Wage inflation and the participation of older workers in the G7
Updated on 02/20/2020 17:23
Post n°46

Quarterly variations in employment and joblessness

Published on 01/30/2018

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By Pierre Sicsic and Antoine Sigwalt

According to administrative sources based on employer returns, salaried employment in France rose by more than 40 thousand in 2017Q3. Conversely, according to the household Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate increased from 9.2% to 9.4% in metropolitan France. In principal, this divergence may be related to changes in the labour force. In practice, it is also the result of differences in the methods applied to measure quarterly employment variations.

Updated on 02/19/2020 16:25
Post n°41

The duality of the French labour market

Published on 12/19/2017

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By Clémence Berson

In France, flexibility in the labour market relies mainly on fixed-term and temporary workers. These workers are less well paid, receive less training and find it difficult to obtain permanent employment. This two-tier labour market creates social and economic problems. Public policies can be envisaged to favour transition to permanent contracts.

Updated on 02/17/2020 15:01

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