Globalisation

Post n°293

How much do China’s regional lockdowns affect international trade?

Published on 12/02/2022

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By Sebastian Stumpner

As part of its zero-Covid policy, China uses regional lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. This blog estimates the effect of these regional lockdowns on Chinese trade. While most lockdowns have no noticeable effect, lockdowns of very high stringency are continuing to depress trade. The particularly stringent Shanghai lockdown in April 2022 reduced aggregate Chinese trade by 3-4%.

Chart 1: Exports of Shanghai Province collapsed during the Shanghai Lockdown
Chart 1: Exports of Shanghai Province collapsed during the Shanghai Lockdown
Updated on 12/02/2022 08:44
Post n°290

The pass-through of commodity prices to inflation in Africa

Published on 11/10/2022

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By Thibault Lemaire and Paul Vertier

The rise in world commodity prices since mid-2020 has fuelled inflation in Africa. A new estimation strategy shows a pass-through of about 30% from commodity prices to consumer prices on the continent, which is higher than existing estimates. The impact is greater in low-income countries and in those countries where the food share in the consumption basket is the largest.

Chart 1: Impact of a 1% rise in commodity prices on consumer prices in Africa
Chart 1: Impact of a 1% rise in commodity prices on consumer prices in Africa Source: Authors’ calculations based on the local projection method. Data from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), and Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
Updated on 11/10/2022 16:59
Post n°289

Paris maintains its rankings in FX and rate derivatives markets

Published on 11/04/2022

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By Amélie Robinette

In 2022, the Paris marketplace maintained its rankings in global foreign exchange and over-the-counter interest rate derivatives markets. Activity volumes in Paris have risen sharply over the past three years, driven by strong internationalisation and aided by growing digitalisation.

Table 1: France ranks 7th globally in the FX market and 5th in the interest rate derivatives market
Table 1: France ranks 7th globally in the FX market and 5th in the interest rate derivatives market Source: Banque de France for France, BIS for world data. Note: Daily volume of activity in the main financial centres (USD billions, at current exchange rates), gross data adjusted for domestic double counting.
Updated on 11/04/2022 08:46
Post n°288

The three faces of France's international trade

Published on 10/28/2022

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By Barbara Castelleti Font and Véronique Genre

Since 2007, the recurring current account deficits in France have tended to worsen. However, the trade in services balance and the primary income balance, which traditionally show a surplus, have limited or even offset the goods trade deficit, which hit a record high in 2021 due in particular to the energy bill. In 2019 and 2021, France returned to a current account surplus. But the sustainability of this current account surplus is by no means assured.

Chart 1. France: Current account balance (% of GDP) Source: Banque de France and Insee
Updated on 10/28/2022 15:49
Post n°280

The Hegemony of the Dollar from a Two-Century Perspective

Published on 07/21/2022

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By Roger Vicquéry

Recent geopolitical tensions have put the hegemonic role of the dollar, and its potential demise, back into the spotlight. Looking at a new long run measure of global currency competition over two centuries, no global currency leader has been able to sustain such a large lead over its competitors for such a prolonged period.

Chart 1: The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries
Chart 1: The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries Source: Vicquéry (2022). Global currency dominance GDP-weighted scores.
Updated on 07/22/2022 09:14
Post n°279

China at the heart of Asian value chains

Published on 07/18/2022

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By Camille Macaire and Marie-Élisabeth de la Serve

The Covid crisis has strengthened China’s central role in global value chains. However, the rise in its position in these chains dates back to before the pandemic. It has become particularly closely integrated with ASEAN members, which import a growing share of intermediate goods from China.

Chart 1: China is building new dependencies on its products, especially in ASEAN countries
Chart 1: China is building new dependencies on its products, especially in ASEAN countries Source: OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database. Note: Share of Chinese value added in final demand, manufacturing industry.
Updated on 07/20/2022 08:40
Post n°270

The war in Ukraine is strengthening market interconnections

Published on 05/16/2022

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By Tristan Jourde

The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a change in the structure of interconnections between financial markets. While the contagion effects have remained limited overall, the war has brought about new negative correlations between certain commodity indices (aluminium, oil, gold, silver, wheat) on the one hand, and equity markets, particularly in Europe, on the other.

Chart 1: Interconnections prior to the war in Ukraine Source: Refinitiv Datastream; author’s calculations. ISO codes : Australia (AUS), Canada (CAN), France (FRA), Germany (DEU), Italy (ITA), Japan (JPN), Netherlands (NLD), United Kingdom (GBR), United States (USA).
Updated on 05/18/2022 10:22
Post n°247

Conducting monetary policy in an interconnected world

Published on 12/20/2021

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By Olivier de Bandt, Juan Carluccio, David Lodge, Javier Perez

Since the previous ECB strategy review in 2003, interdependencies across countries have increased, making economic and financial conditions in the euro area more prone to foreign influence. However, the analyses behind the new ECB’s Strategy Review conclude globalisation does not impede the ECB from achieving price stability but calls for the adaptation of instruments and analytical toolkits.

Figure 1: Trade openness 1995-2020, euro area and world
Figure 1: Trade openness 1995-2020, euro area and world Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators and European Central Bank data. Trade openness is defined as the sum of imports and exports divided by GDP.
Updated on 12/20/2021 16:57
Post n°238

The collapse of French exports in the Covid crisis: mainly those of large business units

Published on 11/12/2021

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By J.-C. Bricongne, J. Carluccio, L. Fontagné, G. Gaulier and S. Stumpner

The Covid-19 crisis led to a collapse of French exports in April and May 2020. Using customs data, we investigate the role of the performance of individual exporters. Although the number of exporters contracted by roughly a quarter, excluding aeronautics, it was the reduction in exports of the hundred or so largest exporters (representing 36% of French exports before Covid) that accounted for approximately half of the decline observed at the aggregate level.

Chart 1: Largest exporters contributed more than their pre-crisis share (April-May 2020 relative to April-May 2019)
Chart 1: Largest exporters contributed more than their pre-crisis share (April-May 2020 relative to April-May 2019) Source:  Authors' calculations based on Customs data.
Updated on 11/12/2021 16:19
Post n°231

Summer 2021: France’s international trade in travel picks up

Published on 10/07/2021

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By Florian Le Gallo and Kevin Schmitt

After a sluggish first half of the year, international travel picked up in the summer of 2021. In France, travel receipts amounted to EUR10.6 billion, down 29% compared to the summer of 2019 but up 25% compared to 2020. This rebound can be attributed to travellers from nearby countries. However, French travel spending abroad is also more dynamic, so that the surplus is still slightly lower than in the summer of 2020.

Chart 1: France’s monthly travel receipts (EUR billions, non-seasonally-adjusted data)
Chart 1: France’s monthly travel receipts (EUR billions, non-seasonally-adjusted data) Source: Banque de France
Updated on 10/07/2021 15:36

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