Globalisation

Post n°270
Published on 05/16/2022

By Tristan Jourde

The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a change in the structure of interconnections between financial markets. While the contagion effects have remained limited overall, the war has brought about new negative correlations between certain commodity indices (aluminium, oil, gold, silver, wheat) on the one hand, and equity markets, particularly in Europe, on the other.

Chart 1: Interconnections prior to the war in Ukraine Source: Refinitiv Datastream; author’s calculations. ISO codes : Australia (AUS), Canada (CAN), France (FRA), Germany (DEU), Italy (ITA), Japan (JPN), Netherlands (NLD), United Kingdom (GBR), United States (USA).
Post n°247
Published on 12/20/2021

By Olivier de Bandt, Juan Carluccio, David Lodge, Javier Perez

Since the previous ECB strategy review in 2003, interdependencies across countries have increased, making economic and financial conditions in the euro area more prone to foreign influence. However, the analyses behind the new ECB’s Strategy Review conclude globalisation does not impede the ECB from achieving price stability but calls for the adaptation of instruments and analytical toolkits.

Figure 1: Trade openness 1995-2020, euro area and world
Figure 1: Trade openness 1995-2020, euro area and world Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators and European Central Bank data. Trade openness is defined as the sum of imports and exports divided by GDP.
Post n°238
Published on 11/12/2021

By J.-C. Bricongne, J. Carluccio, L. Fontagné, G. Gaulier and S. Stumpner

The Covid-19 crisis led to a collapse of French exports in April and May 2020. Using customs data, we investigate the role of the performance of individual exporters. Although the number of exporters contracted by roughly a quarter, excluding aeronautics, it was the reduction in exports of the hundred or so largest exporters (representing 36% of French exports before Covid) that accounted for approximately half of the decline observed at the aggregate level.

Chart 1: Largest exporters contributed more than their pre-crisis share (April-May 2020 relative to April-May 2019)
Chart 1: Largest exporters contributed more than their pre-crisis share (April-May 2020 relative to April-May 2019) Source:  Authors' calculations based on Customs data.
Post n°231
Published on 10/07/2021

By Florian Le Gallo and Kevin Schmitt

After a sluggish first half of the year, international travel picked up in the summer of 2021. In France, travel receipts amounted to EUR10.6 billion, down 29% compared to the summer of 2019 but up 25% compared to 2020. This rebound can be attributed to travellers from nearby countries. However, French travel spending abroad is also more dynamic, so that the surplus is still slightly lower than in the summer of 2020.

Chart 1: France’s monthly travel receipts (EUR billions, non-seasonally-adjusted data)
Chart 1: France’s monthly travel receipts (EUR billions, non-seasonally-adjusted data) Source: Banque de France
Post n°227
Published on 08/18/2021

The pandemic has hit certain economies harder than others as a result of their particular sectoral specialisation. France’s specialisation in aeronautics, for example, explains nearly two-thirds of the decline in its global export market shares in the second half of 2020, and a third of the 8 percentage-point decline over the full year.

Chart 1: Value of goods exports (quarterly national accounts, Q4 2019=100).
Chart 1: Value of goods exports (quarterly national accounts, Q4 2019=100). Source: Quarterly national accounts, data adjusted for seasonal and working-day variations.
Post n°226
Published on 08/11/2021

By Valérie Chauvin and Pierre Sicsic

In 2020, the current account deficit of the balance of payments reached its highest level since 1982. It was financed by larger purchases of government securities by non-residents than in 2019, amounting to EUR 86 billion, which covered both the current account deficit and the increase in net private sector assets.

Chart 1:  financing from the rest of the world by sector (in EUR billions)
Chart 1: financing from the rest of the world by sector (in EUR billions) Source Banque de France
Post n°223
Published on 07/14/2021

By Antoine Berthou and Sebastian Stumpner

Lockdowns and more generally restrictions introduced by governments during the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to the disruption of international trade in goods. We show that bilateral trade declined more when lockdowns were initially introduced in Spring 2020 with a higher degree of stringency. Moreover, the quantitative impact of lockdowns on trade weakened in the second half of 2020. This is especially the case of lockdowns implemented in the exporting country, which have little or no significant impact on trade in the second half of 2020.

Chart 1: The effect of lockdowns on bilateral trade has become weaker over time in 2020.
Chart 1: The effect of lockdowns on bilateral trade has become weaker over time in 2020
Post n°217
Published on 05/18/2021

Despite significant international financial support, low-income countries (LICs) are likely to be more affected by the crisis than advanced or emerging countries. Strengthening the IMF's financial safety net for LICs is in everyone's interest, in order to prevent these countries from becoming weak links in global risks, such as those related to health or climate change.

Chart 1: Average per capita GDP growth
Chart 1: Average per capita GDP growth Source: IMF (WEO, REO, April 2021)
Post n°216
Published on 05/12/2021

By Grâce Constant, Andréa Tran Van Hong and Marie Rouger 

In the face of the Covid-19 crisis, New Caledonia’s economy, which is highly dependent on nickel, is showing some resilience thanks to the buoyant global nickel market, while French Polynesia’s economy is being harder hit by the lockdown measures due to the high weight of tourism. The impact of the crisis is nonetheless being limited by non-market services, which are a key source of resilience in both territories.

Chart 1: Economic characteristics of the French overseas collectivities in the Pacific Ocean
Chart 1: Economic characteristics of the French overseas collectivities in the Pacific Ocean Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE – French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Research).
Post n°205
Published on 02/23/2021

By Olivier de Bandt, Jean-Charles Bricongne and Lionel Fontagné

The environment that economic policy makers face today is characterised by both a large amount of uncertainty and a high level of globalisation. This blog post highlights a perception of increasing uncertainty by economic agents when external shocks become more frequent, and a faster transmission of these shocks when the economy is more open, or when traded goods are produced within more sophisticated "value chains". Globalisation has thus heightened the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty on the real economy, amplifying the consequences of international uncertainty shocks.

Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)

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