Financial stability

Post n°272

Quality and Diversity of Research: a Ranking of Academic Journals

Published on 06/03/2022

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By Jean Barthélemy, Vincent Bignon, Régis Breton, Juan Carluccio and Gilbert Cette

In order to assess the quality of its research output, the Banque de France has constructed its own ranking of academic journals in economics and finance. The objective is to encourage the production of research on issues relevant to the Banque de France. This post explains the ten principles underlying the construction of this ranking.

Chart 1: Evolution of the number of authors of academic papers affiliated with one of the Eurosystem central banks on the REPEC website
Chart 1: Evolution of the number of authors of academic papers affiliated with one of the Eurosystem central banks on the REPEC website Source: Authors' calculations based on central bank ranking data from the REPEC website
Updated on 06/03/2022 08:36
Post n°271

The real effects of bank runs: France in 1930 and 1931

Published on 05/25/2022

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Eric Monnet, Angelo Riva and Stefano Ungaro

During the Great Depression, bank runs in France were characterised by a flight from banks to savings institutions, which were perceived as safer. Here, we identify and quantify the effects of these bank runs and analyse the conditions that led them to deepen the economic crisis.

Chart 1: Total deposits in banks and savings institutions, 1920-36
Chart 1: Total deposits in banks and savings institutions, 1920-36 Source : Baubeau, Monnet, Riva et Ungaro (2021)
Updated on 05/25/2022 09:02
Post n°266

AI and banks’ own funds: a new determination?

Published on 04/20/2022

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By Hyacinthe Buisson, Henri Fraisse and Matthias Laporte

The increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) techniques could allow banks to develop new credit risk models. These techniques could lead to substantial reductions in capital requirements. However, the opaque nature of these algorithms and the governance challenges they raise might make their adoption less attractive.

Chart 1: Neural network models could lead to substantial reductions in capital requirements
Chart 1: Neural network models could lead to substantial reductions in capital requirements Source: Fraisse and Laporte (2022) forthcoming in the Journal of Banking and Finance.
Updated on 04/20/2022 10:02
Post n°257

Climate transition scenarios and financial risk

Published on 02/25/2022

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By Carlos Mateo Caidedo Graciano, Laurent Clerc, Fulvio Pegoraro and Marie Rabate

As part of the first climate pilot exercise, the Banque de France and the ACPR developed a series of models to quantify the financial risks associated with different climate transition scenarios. We present some of the results in this post. In some scenarios, the oil industry's probability of default is expected to increase by 400 bps, its credit spread by 30 bps and its stock market valuation is expected to decrease by 40-50% in 2050.

Chart 1: Changes in probabilities of default for the most affected sectors (PDs in bps in deviation from the orderly scenario)
Chart 1: Changes in probabilities of default for the most affected sectors (PDs in bps in deviation from the orderly scenario) Source: authors’ calculations.
Updated on 02/25/2022 17:53
Post n°255

“Too little, too late”: Impact of a disorderly climate transition

Published on 02/08/2022

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By Annabelle de Gaye and Noëmie Lisack

In order to evaluate the financial risks linked to climate change, the Banque de France and ACPR have developed a suite of models that quantify adverse low-carbon transition scenarios for France. While the short-term macroeconomic effect is limited, the key impacts are located at the sector level and are strongly heterogeneous. A second blog post will examine the issue of financial stability.

Chart 1: Impact of disorderly transitions on total and sectoral activity in France in 2050 (compared with an orderly transition)
Chart 1: Impact of disorderly transitions on total and sectoral activity in France in 2050 (compared with an orderly transition) Source: Authors’ calculations
Updated on 02/08/2022 18:07
Post n°249

System-wide stress tests: a deep dive into the financial system

Published on 01/07/2022

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By Gábor Fukker, Thibaud Piquard, Aurore Schilte and Matthias Sydow

The growth of non-bank financial intermediation calls for a more holistic risk assessment encompassing the entire financial system and the interactions between financial intermediaries. The incorporation of investment funds into a stress test for banks further increases the impact of a shock in terms of depletion of bank capital by 1%.

Chart 1: Representation of securities holdings networks for euro area banks and funds.
Chart 1: Representation of securities holdings networks for euro area banks and funds. Source: Sydow et al. (2021). Note: Each dot is an entity of all possible sectors. Each line shows that a bank (blue dot) or a fund (purple dot) holds a security issued by another entity.
Updated on 01/07/2022 15:06
Post n°246

A measure of the evolution of cyber risk

Published on 12/17/2021

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By Stéphane Lhuissier and Fabien Tripier

After the 2008 financial crisis, then the 2020 health crisis, will the next global economic crisis be a cyber crisis? Cyber risk is a real threat to the economy and public authorities are mobilised to deal with it. This post presents an indicator used to monitor this risk on a daily basis, based on exchanges on the social network Twitter.

Chart 1 – Evolution of cyber risk over the last decade
Chart 1 – Evolution of cyber risk over the last decade Source: Twitter and authors’ calculations.
Updated on 12/17/2021 18:08
Post n°245

Crypto-assets and financial stability: are there any contagion risks?

Published on 12/10/2021

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By Jean Barthélemy, Paul Gardin and Benoît Nguyen

The strong growth of stablecoins - the category of crypto-assets whose market value is supposed to remain stable by being pegged to a reference currency such as the dollar - is increasingly attracting the attention of regulators because of potential risks to financial stability. This post illustrates one of the mechanisms by which crypto-assets could impact financial stability: the growing use of stablecoins could prove destabilising to the short-term debt market in the United States.

Chart 1: Capitalisation of the main stablecoins
Chart 1: Capitalisation of the main stablecoins Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Messari, Bloomberg
Updated on 12/10/2021 15:51
Post n°235

Is there a bubble in “green” equities?

Published on 10/26/2021

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By Tristan Jourde and Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon

Given the recent outperformance of those sectors best-positioned to accompany the ecological transition, some commentators have voiced fears that a bubble might be emerging in “green” equities. A systematic analysis based on the environmental scores (the “E “in ESG) of over 2,500 stocks in the Datastream Global Equity Index suggests that these fears may be overdone.

Chart 1: Trajectory of prices for clean, neutral and polluting sectors
Chart 1: Trajectory of prices for clean, neutral and polluting sectors Source: Datastream. Scope: World. BdF calculations.
Updated on 10/26/2021 16:48
Post n°225

Health crisis: (very) heterogeneous cash flow shocks

Published on 07/30/2021

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By Benjamin Bureau, Anne Duquerroy, Julien Giorgi, Mathias Lé, Suzanne Scott and Frédéric Vinas

Without support measures, the cash flow shocks (on a constant funding basis) experienced by French companies in 2020 would have been generally negative but above all very heterogeneous, including within a single sector of activity. The support measures brought the share of negative (and positive) shocks back to the level of a normal year and reduced their dispersion, although major shocks at both distribution tails were less rare than usual.

Chart 1. Share of companies with a positive or negative cash flow shock in 2020
Chart 1. Share of companies with a positive or negative cash flow shock in 2020 Source: Bureau et al. (2021a).
Updated on 07/30/2021 17:44

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