Current economic developments

Post n°214

How are the costs of adapting to Covid reflected in prices?

Published on 05/05/2021

Share links

By Mathilde Gerardin and Jean-François Ouvrard

In the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) carried out at the end of February/beginning of March 2021, business leaders were asked about the organisational costs associated with COVID and their ability to pass them on to their selling prices. These costs may be high for some sectors but their ability to pass them on to prices appears to be generally limited. Ultimately, the direct and indirect impact on the general level of consumer prices should therefore be small, between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage point, but these costs could affect the margins of some companies.

Chart 1: Direct impact on selling prices of the additional costs generated by the health measures
Chart 1: Direct impact on selling prices of the additional costs generated by the health measures Source: The Banque de France's monthly business survey
Updated on 05/05/2021 15:52
Post n°211

The public health crisis: a complementary approach to firms’ activity

Published on 04/22/2021

Share links

By Benjamin Bureau, Anne Duquerroy, Mathias Lé and Frédéric Vinas (Banque de France), Julien Giorgi and Suzanne Scott (INSEE)

Since the start of the public health crisis, the Banque de France and INSEE have compiled a monthly estimate of the loss of activity in each sector, notably via their monthly economic surveys and their monitoring of high-frequency data. The monthly surveys have proved to be a reliable and almost real-time indicator of the impact of the restrictions, and have on the whole been confirmed by the national quarterly accounts. In parallel, the Banque de France and INSEE have launched a joint project which differs from these surveys but complements them in terms of methodology: using real turnover data for individual firms (measured using VAT returns), they compare ex-post the “activity shock” with a counterfactual of what turnover would have been without the. This makes it possible to carry out an analysis at a more granular level, within individual sectors. This blog post presents the first results of this project, which are consistent with our monthly surveys. They will be supplemented with an ex-post analysis of firms’ cash and financial positions.

Chart 1 – Evolution of the aggregate shock to activity over 2020
Chart 1 – Evolution of the aggregate shock to activity over 2020 Source: VAT data (DGFiP) and authors’ calculations.
Updated on 04/22/2021 13:19
Post n°206

Uncertainty due to Covid-19 is contributing to French household savings

Published on 03/03/2021

Share links

By Stefan Gebauer, Jean-François Ouvrard and Camille Thubin

We study the role of precautionary savings in the recent rise in French household savings. Using different approaches, we show that elevated uncertainty contributed to the surge in savings in 2020, notably in the first lockdown. For the whole year, however, uncertainty effects were small compared to the contribution of administrative spending constraints.

Figure 1: Household savings ratio in France (in % of disposable income)
Figure 1: Household savings ratio in France (in % of disposable income) Source: INSEE (most recent observation: 2020Q4). Note: Household savings in per cent of gross disposable income. Most recent observation: 2020Q4.
Updated on 03/03/2021 14:46
Post n°205

Globalisation and uncertainty

Published on 02/23/2021

Share links

By Olivier de Bandt, Jean-Charles Bricongne and Lionel Fontagné

The environment that economic policy makers face today is characterised by both a large amount of uncertainty and a high level of globalisation. This blog post highlights a perception of increasing uncertainty by economic agents when external shocks become more frequent, and a faster transmission of these shocks when the economy is more open, or when traded goods are produced within more sophisticated "value chains". Globalisation has thus heightened the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty on the real economy, amplifying the consequences of international uncertainty shocks.

Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Updated on 02/23/2021 16:39
Post n°204

The economic channels of the Covid-19 crisis in France

Published on 02/17/2021

Share links

By Raphaël Cancé, Jean-François Ouvrard and Camille Thubin

The health crisis has caused an unprecedented economic shock. In this post, we describe its different channels using the FR-BDF forecasting model. In 2020, shocks to private domestic demand and to trade performance dominate. In 2021 and 2022, public support is expected to speed up economic recovery, but supply shocks should slow down the rebound.

Chart 1: Deviation of projected activity in December 2020 from the pre-crisis path
Chart 1: Deviation of projected activity in December 2020 from the pre-crisis path Source: Banque de France (FR-BDF model, December 2020 macroeconomic projections)
Updated on 02/17/2021 09:05
Post n°192

Speed up restructuring proceedings in response to Covid-19?

Published on 12/10/2020

Share links

By Chloé Zapha

Collective restructuring proceedings could be improved in order to deal effectively with ailing firms. Speeding up the process of corporate debt restructuring - starting with the safeguard procedure - could help as many firms as possible to recover.

Chart 1: fewer receivership proceedings have been initiated than in previous years since the beginning of lockdown
Chart 1: fewer receivership proceedings have been initiated than in previous years since the beginning of lockdown Source: France Stratégie (data from the BODACC, calculations by Cros, Epaulard and Zapha)
Updated on 12/10/2020 10:41
Post n°186

Large enterprises’ investment in times of crisis

Published on 10/20/2020

Share links

By Anne Duquerroy and Clément Mazet-Sonilhac

Preserving companies' investment capacity as they emerge from the Covid-19 crisis is a key issue of economic policy, as shown by the emergency measures taken by the ECB and, in France, by the government. Indeed, access to external financing is a major determinant of investment. A financing shock, such as the 2008 crisis, could lead to a sharp decline in the investment rate of major French groups.

Cost of external financing for non-financial corporations (%)
Chart 1. Cost of external financing for non-financial corporations (%) Source: Gilchrist and Mojon (2017)
Updated on 10/20/2020 18:39
Post n°185

The Bank's VSE-SME correspondents during the health crisis

Published on 10/15/2020

Share links

By Sylvie Bonneau

During the lockdown, the Banque de France's network of VSE-SME correspondents was greatly called upon to guide entrepreneurs in their requests for financing. Managers' concerns changed during this period.

Chart 1 – Managers’ meetings with VSE-SME correspondents and crisis-related needs
Chart 1 – Managers’ meetings with VSE-SME correspondents and crisis-related needs Source: Banque de France
Updated on 10/15/2020 18:08
Post n°184

Measuring international travel during the Covid-19 pandemic

Published on 10/07/2020

Share links

By Florian Le Gallo and Kevin Schmitt

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely disrupted international tourism. As foreign traveller surveys are no longer conducted, the Banque de France has brought into play innovative information sources, such as payment card data, to assess the scale of the shock. After a massive drop in receipts since March, European visitors returned to France during the two summer months.

Chart 1: France’s international tourism receipts (in EUR billions) Source: Banque de France.
Updated on 10/07/2020 14:04
Post n°183

Towards a sustainable upturn in official development assistance?

Published on 10/02/2020

Share links

By Luc Jacolin and Khalil Bechchani

Official development assistance (ODA) should be bolstered in 2020 by the international response to the Covid-19 crisis, whose impact in low-income countries is still uncertain. The main challenge is to ensure that the efforts undertaken will be sufficient and sustainable: increasing ODA is desirable if the sustainable development goals for 2030 are not to be compromised.

Chart 1: Changes in financial flows entering LICs (in USD billions)
Chart 1: Changes in financial flows entering LICs (in USD billions) Sources: World Bank, OECD and Banque de France estimates for 2020.
Updated on 10/02/2020 18:11

Pages