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Post n°320

How does the Banque de France produce inflation forecasts?

Published on 07/25/2023

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By Youssef Ulgazi

According to the Banque de France's projection, French inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will gradually return towards 2% in 2025. How is this projection produced? This post describes our main tools and shows how, by combining modelling and expert judgement, we produce disaggregated inflation forecasts that are consistent with the overall macroeconomic scenario.

Chart 1: HICP inflation projections in our June 2023 macroeconomic projections
Chart 1: HICP inflation projections in our June 2023 macroeconomic projections Source: HICP inflation (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices), INSEE up to Q1 2023, Banque de France projections in the shaded area
Updated on 07/25/2023 09:03
Post n°319

How insurers are adjusting to rising inflation

Published on 07/18/2023

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By Aurore Cambou, Frédéric Ahado, Baptiste Moulin et Sarah Gandolphe

The impact of higher inflation varies across insurance categories. Insurers are facing an erosion in the value of non-inflation indexed assets and of their real returns, some of which is associated with an increase in liabilities . However, they have different levers at their disposal to adapt to this environment and meet their commitments towards policyholders.

Chart 1: Breakdown of French insurers' bond portfolios, as a % of the market value of assets
Chart 1: Breakdown of French insurers' bond portfolios, as a % of the market value of assets Source: ACPR - List of assets inS.06.02 template from Annual Solvency II Reporting at 31/12/2022
Updated on 07/19/2023 12:25