June 2022

Post n°275
Published on 06/23/2022

By Paul Bouche, Julien Demuynck, Erwan Gautier, Frédérique Savignac

For the first time, the Banque de France is publishing the results of a survey on business leaders’ inflation expectations, collected since the end of 2021. One-year inflation expectations have increased since the beginning of the year and their median stands at 5% in the second quarter of 2022. Longer-term expectations (3-5 years) are also rising, but more slowly, with a median of 3%. This survey was conducted prior to the ECB's monetary policy normalisation announced on 9 June, which is expected to contribute to the gradual "re-anchoring" of inflation expectations.

Chart 1: Changes in inflation expectations since end-2021 in France   (median in %)
Chart 1: Changes in inflation expectations since end-2021 in France (median in %) Note: median weighted by the number of employees in the company and the value added in the company's sector, 1% of the highest responses are not taken into account in the calculations. Source: IE-Banque de France survey.
Post n°274
Published on 06/17/2022

By Stéphane Dees, Jean-François Ouvrard and Pierre-François Weber

Modelling is a key element in the Eurosystem's climate change action plan. Macroeconomic analysis and the preparation of monetary policy decisions are based on quantitative work in which models play a central role.

Chart 1: Economic impacts of climate change
Chart 1: Economic impacts of climate change Source : Authors’ analysis
Post n°273
Published on 06/10/2022

By Céline Grislain-Letrémy  and Bertrand Villeneuve (Université Paris-Dauphine)

The rising costs of natural disasters over the last decades are largely explained by urbanisation in exposed areas. Land-use and insurance policies can limit this urbanisation. Simple frequently-observed policies, with prohibited red zones and zones without insurance tariff differentiation, are relatively efficient. It is critical that red zones be redefined to reflect changes in climate risks or population developments.

Chart 1: New Orleans
Chart 1: New Orleans Source: pixabay.com
Post n°272
Published on 06/03/2022

In order to assess the quality of its research output, the Banque de France has constructed its own ranking of academic journals in economics and finance. The objective is to encourage the production of research on issues relevant to the Banque de France. This post explains the ten principles underlying the construction of this ranking.

Chart 1: Evolution of the number of authors of academic papers affiliated with one of the Eurosystem central banks on the REPEC website
Chart 1: Evolution of the number of authors of academic papers affiliated with one of the Eurosystem central banks on the REPEC website Source: Authors' calculations based on central bank ranking data from the REPEC website