May 2022

Post n°270
Published on 05/16/2022

By Tristan Jourde

The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a change in the structure of interconnections between financial markets. While the contagion effects have remained limited overall, the war has brought about new negative correlations between certain commodity indices (aluminium, oil, gold, silver, wheat) on the one hand, and equity markets, particularly in Europe, on the other.

Chart 1: Interconnections prior to the war in Ukraine Source: Refinitiv Datastream; author’s calculations. ISO codes : Australia (AUS), Canada (CAN), France (FRA), Germany (DEU), Italy (ITA), Japan (JPN), Netherlands (NLD), United Kingdom (GBR), United States (USA).
Post n°269
Published on 05/13/2022

So far in 2022, industry-level wage bargaining has generally resulted in wage increases of around 3% compared with rises of close to 1% in recent years. Inflation, which has been higher since the end of 2021, and the recent hike in the national minimum wage (NMW) are contributing to this stronger growth in negotiated wages.

Chart 1: Change in negotiated wages, the NMW and inflation (year-on-year % change)
Chart 1: Change in negotiated wages, the NMW and inflation (year-on-year % change) Source : INSEE (consumer price index – all households, and NMW), Banque de France (300 national, regional and departmental industries – private sector – wage floors).
Post n°268
Published on 05/11/2022

By Sebastian Stumpner

This blog post examines to what extent the recent surge in international transport costs has fuelled US import price inflation. While we find a moderate effect at the aggregate level, there are significant differences across products that are largely driven by the degree of containerisation.

Chart 1: The share of transport costs has increased only for containerised goods
Chart 1: The share of transport costs has increased only for containerised goods Source: Author’s calculations based on data from TradeDataMonitor.