February 2021

Post n°205
Published on 02/23/2021

By Olivier de Bandt, Jean-Charles Bricongne and Lionel Fontagné

The environment that economic policy makers face today is characterised by both a large amount of uncertainty and a high level of globalisation. This blog post highlights a perception of increasing uncertainty by economic agents when external shocks become more frequent, and a faster transmission of these shocks when the economy is more open, or when traded goods are produced within more sophisticated "value chains". Globalisation has thus heightened the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty on the real economy, amplifying the consequences of international uncertainty shocks.

Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Chart 1: Uncertainty and openness of the euro area current account (1999-2019)
Post n°204
Published on 02/17/2021

By Raphaël Cancé, Jean-François Ouvrard and Camille Thubin

The health crisis has caused an unprecedented economic shock. In this post, we describe its different channels using the FR-BDF forecasting model. In 2020, shocks to private domestic demand and to trade performance dominate. In 2021 and 2022, public support is expected to speed up economic recovery, but supply shocks should slow down the rebound.

Chart 1: Deviation of projected activity in December 2020 from the pre-crisis path
Chart 1: Deviation of projected activity in December 2020 from the pre-crisis path Source: Banque de France (FR-BDF model, December 2020 macroeconomic projections)
Post n°203
Published on 02/10/2021

How would the impact of a European carbon tax on the French economy differ from that in the rest of the EU? The medium-run impact on value added would be 20% lower in France than in the rest of the EU. This divergence would stem more from differences in the sectoral structure of the economy (the weight of those sectors most affected, inter-sectoral flows) than from differences in carbon intensity between homologous sectors.

Chart 1: Breakdown by sector of the impact on real value added in France and in the rest of the EU
Chart 1: Breakdown by sector of the impact on real value added in France and in the rest of the EU Source: Authors' calculations.
Post n°202
Published on 02/03/2021

By Jérémi Montornès and Marie-Baïanne Khder

The authors belonged to the Economic Studies and National Accounts Directorate at Insee when they wrote the article from which this blog post is derived. The authors would like to thank D. Blanchet for his helpful comments when writing the article. They remain solely responsible for any errors and omissions.

Irish GDP growth over the recent period has been strongly influenced by transfers from US multinationals. These transactions have increased since 2015. Changes in Irish GDP and its components now reflect multinationals’ choice of location in addition to cyclical fluctuations.

Chart 1: Quarterly changes in GDP and GNI in volume  (in %, adjusted for seasonal and working day variations)
Chart 1: Quarterly changes in GDP and GNI in volume (in %, adjusted for seasonal and working day variations) Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), national accounts