November 2020

Post n°189
Published on 11/26/2020

By Nicolas Chatelais and Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon

Despite the corrections at the end of 2018 and the Covid-19 shock, price-earnings ratios remain at high levels, particularly in the United States. However, based on indices adjusted for expected growth and the level of interest rates, this trend does not appear to be the result of irrational exuberance like in previous speculative episodes.

Chart 1: Cyclically adjusted P/Es and interest rates in the United States
Chart 1: Cyclically adjusted P/Es and interest rates in the United States Sources: S&P 500, Datastream, Fed Saint Louis & Philadelphia. Author’s calculations. Most recent value: October 2020
Post n°188
Published on 11/20/2020

By Olivier Sirello

The coronavirus crisis and decline in economic activity have led to a steep rise in the need for financing. As a result, net issuance of public and private debt securities in the euro area has increased to unprecedented levels. The main buyers are central banks and banking institutions, and, to a lesser extent, non-euro area residents.

Chart 1: Public and private debt issuance has reached record levels in the euro area (Seasonally adjusted data, EUR billions)
Chart 1: Public and private debt issuance has reached record levels in the euro area (Seasonally adjusted data, EUR billions) Source: European Central Bank (author’ s calculations).
Post n°187
Published on 11/18/2020

By Peter Gubert and Patrick Branthomme

The technology balance of payments (TBP) provides a framework for analysing international technology transfers. After displaying a surplus in 2018, France's TBP stood at equilibrium at the end of 2019. The European Union's TBP shows a surplus comparable to that of the United States.

Chart 1: France: TBP at equilibrium in 2019 after a slight surplus in 2018 (EUR billion)/balance excluding insurance and tourism).
Chart 1: France: TBP at equilibrium in 2019 after a slight surplus in 2018 (EUR billion/balance excluding insurance and tourism). Source: Banque de France