April 2020

Post n°159

Current and past recessions: a long-term perspective

Published on 04/27/2020

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By Antonin Bergeaud, Gilbert Cette, and Rémy Lecat

The current recession is expected to be shallower than the Great Depression of 1929, but deeper than the Great Recession of 2008. It could be shorter than these two financial crises because of the temporary and exogenous nature of the shock that caused it. It could contribute to the deployment of the digital economy, thereby boosting productivity and growth.

Chart 1a: The current recession compared to previous ones. Euro Area.
Chart 1a: The current recession compared to previous ones. Euro Area. Source: www.longtermproductivity.com Note: (GDP growth in %, periods of war in dotted lines, IMF forecast in orange)
Updated on 04/27/2020 15:59
Post n°158

Short-time work: a useful tool in times of crisis.

Published on 04/20/2020

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By Clémence Berson, Hadrien Camatte and Sandra Nevoux 

The short-time work mechanism has recently been bolstered to limit the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic on employment. By preventing dismissals due to temporary difficulties, the reduction in hours worked allows firms to preserve their human capital and will foster the resumption of activity. Certain windfall effects should nevertheless be avoided, outside crisis periods, even though they generally remain minor compared with the benefits of such schemes during times of crisis.

Short-time work: a useful tool in times of crisis.
Chart 1: Development of short-time work in France due to Covid-19 (1 March – 14 April 2020). Source: Dares. Note: In France, the number of requests for short-time work due to Covid-19 amounted to 904,000 at 14 April 2020, representing 8.7 million employees (34% of salaried employment).
Updated on 04/20/2020 16:17
Post n°157

What central banks have done to help the economy survive Covid-19

Published on 04/15/2020

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By Florens Odendahl, Adrian Penalver, Urszula Szczerbowicz

Covid-19 is a public health emergency. Economic activity has been suspended due to the necessary confinement measures taken almost everywhere in the world. The targeted policies of major central banks to address this economic crisis share many common features but differ in details and labels.

Chart 1: Timeline of central banks’ main responses to the Covid-19 crisis.
Chart 1: Timeline of central banks’ main responses to the Covid-19 crisis. Source: Banque de France.
Updated on 04/21/2020 11:16