September 2018

Post n°86

International environment and US monetary policy: a textual analysis

Published on 09/25/2018

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By Laurent Ferrara and Charles-Emmanuel Teuf

What role does the international environment play in shaping US monetary policy decisions? To measure its influence, we construct an international indicator extracted from minutes of Fed monetary policy committee meetings. In a Taylor rule model, we show that the indicator has a significant and negative impact on the fed funds rate. Discussions centred more on the international environment may thus be associated with greater monetary policy easing.

Chart: International environment indicator and major events affecting the global economy
Chart: International environment indicator and major events affecting the global economy Note: The grey areas correspond to major international economic events. Indicator constructed from a textual analysis of FOMC minutes (1993-2017), authors’ calculations
Updated on 02/20/2020 10:43
Post n°85

Firms' net borrowing improved slightly over the last 10 years

Published on 09/18/2018

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By Hadrien Camatte and Jean-François Ouvrard

According to the May 2018 revised national accounts, the net borrowing of non-financial corporations improved slightly over the previous 10 years to 0.4 pp of GDP in 2017. This mainly reflects the sharp reduction in net financial expenses, while the share of compensation of employees and gross investment in value added increased.

More favourable results for the net borrowing of NFCs using a 2014 base (% of GDP)
Chart 1: More favourable results for the net borrowing of NFCs using a 2014 base (% of GDP) Source: Insee national accounts.
Updated on 02/19/2020 18:06
Post n°84

Does FDI crowd out domestic investment?

Published on 09/13/2018

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By Cristina Jude

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are often considered a complement to domestic savings that facilitate the financing of local investment projects. However, as a result of increased competition, they tend to crowd out domestic investment in transition countries in the short term. This effect is mitigated if local financial markets are sufficiently developed.

Domestic investment is crowded out as a result of FDI entry.
Chart 1: Domestic investment is crowded out as a result of FDI entry. Note: Dark blue curve: effect of FDI inflows on domestic investment; red curve: greenfield FDI (creation of a new company ex nihilo); dashed blue line: mergers and acquisitions.
Updated on 02/19/2020 17:58
Post n°83

The economic impact of financial events: an all-or-nothing phenomenon

Published on 09/11/2018

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By Stéphane Lhuissier

By Stéphane Lhuissier
The 2008 financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area led to major recessions. By contrast, the macroeconomic impact of the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 was mild. The reason behind these all-or-nothing effects is amplification: a fragile financial system makes economic agents more sensitive to changes in financial conditions.

Differences in the impact of an adverse financial shock on euro area industrial production between financial states
Chart 1 – Differences in the impact of an adverse financial shock on euro area industrial production between financial states Note: Impulse responses of industrial production to the financial shock in healthy and fragile financial states. The size of the financial shock is the same in both cases. The dotted line shows the median and solid lines are 68% probability intervals.
Updated on 02/19/2020 17:51